9 December 2025 – Geneva: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has once again raised concern over the persistent bottlenecks affecting the global aerospace supply chain. In its latest outlook, the association confirms that aircraft availability remains one of the most significant constraints on airline growth, with production unable to keep pace with industry demand.

Although new aircraft deliveries began to recover in late 2025 and production increases are expected into 2026, IATA warns that the mismatch between airline requirements and manufacturing capacity will take years to resolve. A full normalisation is not expected before 2031–2034, as the sector continues to absorb delivery shortfalls accumulated over the past five years and contend with a record-high order backlog.

Among the notable findings, delivery deficits now total more than 5,300 aircraft. The global order backlog has surpassed 17,000 aircraft — nearly 60% of the active fleet — far above the long-standing average of 30–40%. At today’s production rates, this equates to almost 12 years of output. Fleet age is also rising, now averaging 15.1 years across the global inventory, with passenger aircraft at 12.8 years, cargo aircraft at 19.6 years and wide-bodies at 14.5 years. More than 5,000 aircraft remain in storage, one of the highest levels in industry history despite widespread shortages.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said the ripple effect of the supply chain crisis is being felt across airline operations. “Higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability gains and increased reliance on suboptimal aircraft types are the most obvious challenges. Airlines are missing opportunities to strengthen their top-line, improve their environmental performance and serve customers. Meanwhile travellers are seeing higher costs from the resulting tighter demand/supply conditions. No effort should be spared to accelerate solutions before the impact becomes even more acute.”

Structural Challenges Revealed

As the industry works through production constraints, several underlying issues are emerging. Engine production is lagging behind airframe output, leaving newly completed airframes parked without engines. Certification timelines have stretched dramatically from the historical 12–24 months to as long as four or five years, slowing the entry of new aircraft into service — especially across the long-haul segment.

Geopolitical tensions, including US–China tariff measures on metals and electronics, have further limited the availability of critical components and increased maintenance costs. A shortage of skilled labour, particularly within engine and component manufacturing, continues to inhibit planned production ramp-ups. Additionally, the fragility of a highly concentrated supplier base means even minor disruptions can escalate into significant delays.

The ageing fleet is also slowing expected fuel efficiency gains. Historically, annual improvements averaged 2%. However, fuel efficiency improved by only 0.3% in 2025 and is forecast at 1% for 2026.

Cargo Fleet Pressures

The cargo sector faces its own challenges. Passenger-to-freighter conversion capacity is tightening as airlines retain older aircraft for longer. New-build wide-body production is affected by the same delays facing passenger aircraft, while older freighters — flown harder to offset renewal delays — are approaching the limits of their economic life.

Cost Impact on Airlines

A recent study by IATA and Oliver Wyman estimates that supply chain bottlenecks will cost the airline industry more than USD 11 billion in 2025. This includes:

• Excess fuel costs (~USD 4.2 billion): Older, less efficient aircraft remain in operation due to delivery delays.
• Additional maintenance expenses (USD 3.1 billion): More frequent and costly maintenance is required as fleets age.
• Increased engine leasing costs (USD 2.6 billion): Engines are spending longer in maintenance, and lease rates have risen 20–30% since 2019.
• Surplus inventory holding costs (USD 1.4 billion): Airlines are carrying more spare parts to buffer unpredictable delays.

Accelerating Solutions

To help alleviate the crisis, the study highlights several areas for industry-wide action. These include supporting MRO best practices that reduce dependence on OEM licensing models, enhancing visibility across the supply chain to identify risks earlier, and using better data tools to strengthen resilience.

Expanding the use of predictive maintenance technology, pooling spare parts and establishing shared maintenance data platforms could reduce downtime and optimise inventory. Increasing repair and parts capacity — including authorisations for alternative components and Used Serviceable Material (USM) — and adopting advanced manufacturing techniques may also help ease pressure across the system.