DEMAND CLIMBS DESPITE REGIONAL DIVERGENCE

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its data for May 2026, showing global air cargo markets grew by 6.0% year-on-year, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK). International operations performed even more strongly, expanding by 6.5%. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), rose by 1.9% overall and by 2.8% for international services, indicating that demand growth continued to outpace the addition of new capacity.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said air cargo demand had grown 6% year-on-year in May, with Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America all reporting above-trend growth. Carriers in the Middle East, however, recorded a combined contraction of 8.9% year-on-year as the effects of regional conflict persisted.

Walsh noted that May’s strong performance, combined with supportive macro-economic factors, gave cause for cautious optimism over the remainder of the year. He pointed to growth in global trade and manufacturing output, airlines’ adaptation of operations to shifting demand patterns and supply chain needs, and improving yields and load factors that were helping carriers recoup higher fuel costs. He cautioned, however, that it remained a difficult year overall, particularly given the continuing uncertainty in the Middle East.

AFRICAN CARRIERS POST THE STRONGEST GROWTH

African airlines recorded the strongest regional performance in May, with demand rising 13.3% year-on-year, well ahead of capacity growth of 1.3%. The region’s load factor rose 5.0 percentage points to 46.9%, the largest improvement of any region, reflecting the gap between rising demand and more modest capacity expansion.

North American carriers also performed strongly, with demand up 10.5% year-on-year against capacity growth of 2.4%. Asia-Pacific airlines, which account for the largest share of industry CTK at 35.8%, saw demand grow 8.0% year-on-year, with capacity rising 5.1%. European carriers recorded demand growth of 6.7% against capacity growth of 2.2%, while Latin America and the Caribbean posted a more modest 1.9% increase in demand, with capacity up 5.6%.

MIDDLE EAST CONTRACTION PERSISTS

Middle Eastern carriers remained the clear outlier, recording an 8.9% year-on-year decline in demand and a 9.2% fall in capacity, the weakest performance of any region. The decline reflects the continued impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on regional operations and connecting trade lanes.

The disruption was equally apparent at trade lane level. Europe-Middle East traffic contracted 19.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of decline, while Middle East-Asia traffic fell 16.5% over the same period. Both corridors had previously been significant contributors to industry growth, underscoring the scale of the disruption.

TRADE LANES SHIFT AMID GULF DISRUPTION

Elsewhere, trade lane performance was more encouraging. Asia-North America recorded the strongest growth of any major corridor, up 19.9% year-on-year and accounting for 23.5% of industry CTK, extending a run of four consecutive months of growth. Africa-Asia traffic rose 14.1% year-on-year, its eleventh consecutive month of growth, while Europe-Asia traffic increased 10.0%, extending an exceptional 39-month growth streak. Within-Europe traffic grew 11.5% and within-Asia traffic rose 5.5%, while Europe-North America traffic was broadly flat, up just 0.4% after a single month of growth.

ECONOMIC BACKDROP SUPPORTS CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM

IATA highlighted several supporting factors in the broader operating environment. Global trade increased 5.0% year-on-year in May, extending 25 consecutive months of annual growth. Jet fuel prices fell 16.3% month-on-month, offering some relief to carriers, though prices remained 93.5% above year-earlier levels.

Global manufacturing activity remained broadly supportive, with the Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 53.5. However, the New Export Orders Index remained below the 50-point growth threshold at 49.6, suggesting that air cargo’s growth in May was driven by selected trade flows rather than a broad-based increase in global exports.