IATA’s June air cargo data shows African carriers with the fastest year-to-date demand growth of any world region at 11.1%, more than double the global average of 4.9%. Over the same period African capacity contracted by 0.7%, and in June alone available lift fell 7.1% while every other region added capacity — leaving the continent’s load factor gains driven as much by withdrawn supply as by demand strength.
THE STRONGEST DEMAND GROWTH IN THE WORLD, ON SHRINKING CAPACITY
The International Air Transport Association has released its air cargo market analysis for June 2026, showing global demand measured in cargo tonne-kilometres rising 8.5% year-on-year, with international operations up 9.6%. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, rose 4.4% overall and 4.9% internationally — below the pace of demand growth, lifting the industry cargo load factor 1.7 percentage points to 46.9%.
Within that picture, the African position is distinctive. On a year-to-date basis African carriers recorded demand growth of 11.1%, the highest of any region and more than double the industry figure of 4.9%. Asia Pacific was second at 8.8%, followed by North America at 6.1% and Europe at 5.9%. Latin America and the Caribbean was marginally negative at −0.1% and the Middle East contracted 9.6% on the disruption to its networks. Over the same year-to-date period, African capacity declined 0.7% — making Africa and the Middle East the only two regions to have reduced available lift, and the Middle East reduction being attributable to conflict-related network disruption rather than to a supply decision.
JUNE: EVERY REGION ADDED CAPACITY EXCEPT AFRICA
The June monthly figures sharpen the contrast. African carriers recorded demand growth of 4.7% year-on-year while cutting capacity by 7.1% — the only region to reduce available lift in the month. Asia Pacific added 4.3%, Europe 3.7%, North America 6.2%, the Middle East 2.5% and Latin America and the Caribbean 9.8%. African demand growth also decelerated by 7.4 percentage points from its May pace, the largest deceleration of any region in the month.
IATA’s own assessment of the capacity reduction is direct: the withdrawal moved against the wider pattern, materially tightened regional availability and amplified existing connectivity constraints. The observation matters because it identifies the African capacity position as a constraint on the market rather than a response to weak demand — the demand data being the strongest in the world on a year-to-date basis.
THE LOAD FACTOR GAIN AND WHAT STANDS BEHIND IT
African carriers recorded the largest load factor improvement of any region in June, with the cargo load factor rising 5.4 percentage points to 48.1% on the total market and to 49.1% on international operations. On a year-to-date basis the improvement is 5.0 percentage points to 47.0%. IATA qualifies the result explicitly, noting that the gain was reinforced by the withdrawal of available lift rather than resulting from demand strength alone.
The distinction is operationally material. A load factor improvement produced by demand outpacing capacity indicates a market absorbing additional supply. A load factor improvement produced partly by removing supply indicates a market in which available capacity has become the binding constraint on how much freight can move. On the second reading, the aircraft are fuller because there are fewer of them, and consignments that would otherwise fly are either delayed, routed through non-African carriers or moved by surface transport. Africa’s 48.1% load factor remains below Asia Pacific at 51.8% and Europe at 50.5%, indicating that absolute utilisation has not yet reached the levels of the largest cargo regions even after the gain.
The capacity position is consistent with the financing constraint identified by ACC Aviation Associate Director Tristan Brouard in analysis reported by World Airnews Daily on 23 July, in which he argued that Africa’s aviation challenge is bankability rather than demand, and that the continent does not lack capital so much as it lacks investment-ready operators able to access it competitively. Freighter capacity requires either capital for acquisition or access to lease markets on economic terms, and IATA’s June data shows African demand growing faster than any region in the world while the lift available to serve it contracts.
AFRICA–ASIA: TWELVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF GROWTH
At corridor level, the Africa–Asia trade lane grew 0.9% year-on-year in June, extending its run to twelve consecutive months of growth. The corridor accounts for 1.3% of industry cargo tonne-kilometres based on full-year 2025 volumes. The growth rate is modest against the double-digit expansion recorded on Asia-linked corridors serving other regions, but the consistency of the twelve-month sequence is notable in a period during which several major trade lanes have moved in and out of contraction.
THE GLOBAL PICTURE: NORTH AMERICA LEADS, MIDDLE EAST RETURNS TO GROWTH
Globally, gains were concentrated in two large markets rather than distributed evenly. North American carriers posted the fastest total-market growth at 13.1% year-on-year, adding more than 700 million cargo tonne-kilometres and generating almost 38% of the industry increase. Asia Pacific carriers advanced 7.9%, contributing 670 million CTKs and 34% of the increase — the two regions together producing nearly three quarters of the additional traffic. European carriers recorded 6.9% and Latin American and Caribbean carriers 3.5%, the weakest performance of any region.
Middle Eastern carriers returned to growth at 5.6%, an acceleration of 14.5 percentage points on their May position, reflecting the gradual restoration of transfer traffic through the region’s hub airports. IATA notes that the result is skewed positively by the comparison base, June 2025 having been a particularly weak month for Middle Eastern carriers because of military conflict disruption. The recovery has not been uniform across the network: the Europe–Middle East corridor contracted 41.1% year-on-year, the steepest decline among major trade lanes and a further deterioration of 20.2 percentage points from May, while Middle East–Asia remained in contraction at 4.1% although the pace of decline eased by 11.8 percentage points.
Asia-linked corridors provided the clearest route-level strength. Asia–North America, the largest corridor at 23.5% of industry volumes, rose 14.7% in its fifth consecutive positive month, which IATA attributes to demand associated with artificial intelligence and semiconductor cargo. Within-Asia traffic increased 7.2% in a thirty-second consecutive month of growth, and Europe–Asia advanced 7.1%, extending a growth sequence now running to forty consecutive months. Transatlantic traffic was flat year-on-year, but Europe–North America accelerated 1.8 percentage points, ending three consecutive months of contraction without yet returning to growth.
FUEL, YIELDS AND THE TRADE BACKDROP
Jet fuel prices fell 20% month-on-month in June as oil flows through the Persian Gulf improved, with Strait of Hormuz traffic recovering to almost half its pre-conflict level and returning more than five million barrels per day to the market. Average Dated Brent fell around 20% from May to US$85.5 per barrel amid discussion of a sixty-day ceasefire, and jet fuel fell US$28.5 per barrel month-on-month to an average of US$129.5. On an annual basis, however, jet fuel remained 45.8% higher, Dated Brent 19.6% higher, and the crack spread — the refining premium for jet fuel over crude — 155.6% wider. IATA notes that refining economics stayed unusually tight despite cheaper crude, with strong aviation fuel margins encouraging refiners to prioritise jet production over diesel.
US dollar-denominated air cargo yields declined 1.2% from May, the first month-on-month contraction after two successive increases and the weakest sequential outcome in five months, while remaining 34.0% above the prior year in a fourth consecutive month of double-digit annual gains. On the broader economy, global trade increased 5.2% year-on-year, while the Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index eased 0.5 points to 53.0 and the New Export Orders Index remained below the 50-point threshold for a fourth consecutive month at 49.4. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said demand growth had outpaced capacity globally and in all regions except Latin America and the Caribbean, and had grown faster than global trade, supported by high-value technology products and urgent shipments. He identified continuing hostilities in the Middle East and a renewed focus on tariffs by the United States among the risks to the second half of the year.
Source: IATA, Images: Pexel – Ramaz Bluashvili
