Despite passenger demand accelerating ahead of global trends, Africa’s airlines continue to face some of the world’s toughest operating conditions, keeping margins razor-thin and limiting the region’s share of global profitability.

10 December 2025 (Geneva) — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has outlined its 2026 outlook for Africa, revealing a mixed picture of robust traffic growth overshadowed by persistent structural barriers. While the continent is expected to surpass global air travel growth next year, airlines continue to struggle with the lowest profitability margins worldwide.

IATA projects global air travel growth of 4.9% for 2026, compared with Africa’s anticipated 6.0% expansion. Cargo demand is also set to increase, with global forecasts at 2.6%; African carriers are expected to see slightly lower growth at 2%. Despite this momentum, the financial gap remains stark. Of the global industry’s forecast $41 billion net profit for 2026, African airlines will contribute just $200 million, representing a 1.3% margin—the lowest of all regions. This yields a profit of $1.3 per passenger, far below the global average of $7.9.

“Demand for air travel in Africa is rising faster than in many other parts of the world, but profitability is not keeping pace. With margins of just 1.3%, African airlines are capturing only a fraction of aviation’s economic value. Addressing the barriers that constrain growth is essential to ensure the region’s traffic expansion also delivers financial strength,” said Kamil Al-Awadhi, IATA Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East.

African carriers continue to operate within a challenging landscape. Low GDP per capita fuels price sensitivity; operational costs remain significantly higher than the global average—fuel costs by 17%, taxes and charges by 12–15%, air navigation fees by 10%, and maintenance, insurance, and capital costs by 6–10%. Connectivity remains limited, with only 19% of intra-African routes offering direct flights. In addition, Africa remains the largest contributor to the world’s blocked airline funds, holding 79% of the global $1.2 billion total. Algeria now accounts for the largest share of these blocked funds.

Despite these hurdles, Africa’s long-term aviation prospects remain strong. The continent’s market is forecast to expand by 4.1% annually over the next 20 years, reaching 411 million passengers, making it the third-fastest growing region globally.

Encouraging signs include progress in visa openness. Five countries—Benin, The Gambia, Rwanda, Seychelles, and Ghana—now offer visa-free entry to all African nationals. Additionally, 28% of intra-African travel scenarios are now visa-free, up from 20% in 2016, and 26 countries provide e-visas.

These developments support improved mobility, trade, and regional integration. However, IATA stresses that unlocking Africa’s aviation potential will require targeted governmental action. The association urges states to prioritise aviation as a strategic economic enabler by avoiding excessive taxes and charges, investing in efficient and scalable infrastructure, facilitating greater market access through the Yamoussoukro Decision and the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), and improving affordability and connectivity.

“Africa’s aviation potential is immense. With the third-fastest growth rate in the world over the next two decades, the continent could serve more than 400 million passengers annually by 2044. We’re already seeing encouraging steps—like improved visa openness and e-visa adoption—that support greater mobility and integration. But turning potential into performance requires action. Governments must treat aviation as a catalyst for development, not a source of revenue. That means reducing costs, improving infrastructure, and advancing market liberalisation through the Yamoussoukro Decision and SAATM. With the right policy support, aviation can be a powerful driver of economic transformation across Africa,” added Al-Awadhi.