DELIVERY RECOVERY MARKS INFLECTION POINT FOR THE INDUSTRY

The Honeywell 2025 Global Business Aviation Outlook, now in its 34th consecutive year, projects a prolonged period of steady expansion for the sector, supported by robust OEM order books, ambitious operator acquisition plans and rising flight activity. Drawing on macroeconomic analysis, OEM production schedules and a survey of 312 non-fractional operators representing a fleet of 1,199 business aircraft worldwide, the report forecasts operators will invest $283 billion in 8,500 new business jets between 2025 and 2034.

Jim Currier, President and Chief Executive of Honeywell Aerospace Technologies, said the pulse of business aviation was strong, with demand and output at record levels, fuelled by healthy OEM backlogs and ambitious acquisition plans. The report anticipates 740 new aircraft deliveries in 2025, bringing the industry’s post-pandemic delivery trough to an end and establishing the base for compound annual growth of 3% in both deliveries and expenditure across the ten-year forecast period. Delivery expenditure is projected to rise from $20 billion in 2019 to $32 billion by 2034 in constant 2025 US dollar terms.

OPERATORS PURSUE AMBITIOUS ACQUISITION PLANS

Twenty percent of business jet owners and operators surveyed already hold firm orders for at least one new aircraft, with European operators more proactive still at 29%. Of those planning new purchases, 46% aim to expand their existing fleets and 67% intend to replace current aircraft, a pattern that Honeywell says will substantially add to the used-aircraft inventory while sustaining overall fleet growth. Order plans reflect a near-even split between small, medium and large business jets by volume, though large jets are expected to account for 65% of total spending given their higher acquisition costs.

Ben Driggs, Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer at Honeywell Aerospace Technologies, said operators had relatively bullish new-aircraft purchase plans over the next decade, boding well for the health of the industry. He noted that 20% of operators had already placed orders for one or more new aircraft, with 46% aiming to expand existing fleets and 67% replacing current aircraft. OEMs are responding by expanding production facilities, recruiting additional employees and optimising supply chains to keep pace with demand.

NORTH AMERICA DOMINATES DELIVERIES; MEA AND ASIA PACIFIC FAVOUR LARGE JETS

North America remains the dominant market, with operators in the United States and Canada expected to take delivery of 71% of world business aircraft production in 2025. Europe accounts for 14% of deliveries, followed by Latin America at 7%, Asia Pacific at 5% and the Middle East and Africa (MEA) at 3%. Buyers in the MEA and Asia Pacific regions show a marked preference for large, long-range aircraft suited to the vast distances between the regions’ economic centres. This preference is reflected in the value share of deliveries, with Asia Pacific accounting for 7% of value against 5% of units, and MEA accounting for 5% of value against 3% of units.

FRACTIONAL FLEET GROWS 65% SINCE 2019

Fractional ownership has been one of the most significant structural developments in business aviation since the pandemic, with the global fractional fleet growing by 65% since 2019. Light, midsize and super midsize aircraft account for approximately 80% of the fractional fleet. The report notes that fractional companies continue to serve organisations and individuals who do not own aircraft outright, but that wholly owned flight departments are increasingly supplementing their fleets with fractional shares to manage capacity peaks, cover maintenance downtime and reduce operational complexity.

Of operators currently holding fractional shares, approximately half use them to increase capacity when required, while 30% use them to optimise overall flight activity and 17% to fill gaps during maintenance periods or while awaiting delivery of new aircraft. Fifteen percent of operators are actively considering purchasing fractional shares in the future.

FLIGHT HOURS RISING; 91% EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HOLD OR INCREASE

Flight hours are treated in the Outlook as a leading indicator of industry vitality, reflecting the intensity of current fleet use and signalling future acquisition demand. More than 90% of global operators expect to log at least as many flight hours in 2026 as in 2025, and 28% expect to fly more. Projections are most optimistic among fractional and private owner-operators, who have increased flight activity every year since 2020 as organisations and individuals continue to recognise the security, privacy, convenience and efficiency of business aviation in the post-pandemic era.

PERFORMANCE TOPS PURCHASE PRIORITIES; SAF ADOPTION CONSTRAINED BY COST

When asked to identify their top three priorities when purchasing a new business jet, 89% of survey respondents included performance — covering range, field performance and speed — with more than half rating it the single most important factor. Range scored highest of any individual criterion in a weighted ranking of 39 potential purchase drivers, at 11.9 out of 100, followed by low operating cost at 6.6 and maximum payload and passenger capacity at 6.2. Cost was named as a top-three priority by 56% of respondents, and customer support by 47%.

Heath Patrick, President of Americas Aftermarket at Honeywell Aerospace Technologies, said aircraft buyers had numerous options as manufacturers offered an abundance of choices designed to meet any mission requirement, with performance topping the list by a wide margin, followed by cost and customer support. On sustainability, 81% of operators believe developing more fuel-efficient aircraft and engines is at least moderately effective in achieving sustainability goals, and more than 60% regard sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as at least moderately effective. However, cost and availability remain the largest barriers to wider SAF adoption, and among operators already taking proactive sustainability steps, 60% are acquiring more fuel-efficient aircraft, 56% are using SAF and 31% are flying at more efficient cruise speeds.

METHODOLOGY

The 2025 Outlook draws on macroeconomic analyses, OEM production and development plans shared directly with Honeywell, expert deliberations with aerospace industry leaders, and analysis of Cirium and WingX Advance industry data. The operator survey was conducted by Honeywell in partnership with Seefeld Group and Ad Hoc Research, and covers 312 non-fractional operators whose combined fleet of 1,199 aircraft is representative of the global business aviation community in terms of geography, operation type and fleet composition.