Total air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), continued its upward trajectory compared to November 2023, while capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 4.6%. This indicates a continued demand-supply imbalance, with demand outpacing capacity expansion for the month.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, expressed optimism about the market’s performance, stating, “It was a good November for air cargo with 8.2% demand growth nearly doubling the 4.6% growth in cargo capacity. Fuel costs tracked at 22% below previous-year levels and tight market conditions supported yield growth at 7.8%. All things considered, we are looking to close out 2024 air cargo performance on a profitable note.”

While the outlook for 2025 remains positive, Walsh cautioned that risks remain, citing inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing trade tensions as potential threats to market stability in the coming year.

Economic Conditions Fuel Strong Growth

Several factors contributed to the growth in air cargo demand. Industrial production globally rose by 2.1% in October, and global goods trade increased by 1.6%, marking its seventh consecutive month of growth. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark, indicating overall growth. However, the PMI for new export orders remained below 50, suggesting continued uncertainty in global trade conditions.

Inflationary pressures also remain a key concern. US inflation increased to 2.7% in November, while the European Union saw a rise to 2.5%. In contrast, China’s consumer inflation fell to just 0.2%, underscoring fears of an economic slowdown in the region.

Regional Breakdown: Asia-Pacific Leads the Charge

Regionally, Asia-Pacific saw the strongest growth in air cargo demand, with a remarkable 13.2% year-on-year increase in November. Capacity in the region also increased by 9.4%, further supporting the market’s expansion. This is consistent with the region’s dominant role in the global air cargo market, accounting for 33.3% of the industry’s total share.

North American carriers followed closely, with a 6.9% increase in demand, while capacity grew by 2.2%. European airlines experienced a moderate 5.6% growth in demand, with capacity increasing by 4.3%.

The Middle East saw a 3.6% rise in demand, but capacity fell by 0.6%, reflecting some capacity constraints in the region. In Latin America, carriers posted an impressive 11.6% increase in demand, with capacity rising by 6.4%. However, Africa experienced a decline of 0.7% in air cargo demand, the slowest among the regions, though capacity increased by 0.4%.

Key Trade Lanes Continue to Drive Growth

International trade lanes have been key to sustaining the growth of air cargo, with several routes continuing to show exceptional performance. Notably, the Asia-North America route saw a 13% year-on-year increase, marking the 13th consecutive month of growth. The Europe-Asia route also performed strongly, with a 12.9% increase, extending its streak to 21 consecutive months of growth.

Other notable trade lanes include the Middle East-Europe (+9.9%), Middle East-Asia (+9.0%), and Within Asia (+12.2%). These strong results are largely attributed to rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe, alongside capacity constraints in ocean shipping.

Looking Ahead: Cautious Optimism

As the global air cargo market heads towards the close of 2024, the performance of the sector remains strong, with a likely positive outlook into 2025. However, the IATA urges caution, as various economic and geopolitical factors continue to pose challenges. Maintaining this growth trajectory will depend on the ability to navigate these risks while capitalising on the continuing demand for global trade.

For now, air cargo remains a vital component of global trade, with demand showing no signs of slowing as it moves into the new year.

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