January traffic data reflects Lunar New Year timing effect

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported a 3.8% year-on-year increase in global passenger demand for January 2026, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK).

Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), rose 3.5% compared to January 2025. The global load factor reached 82.0%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and a record high for the month of January.

International demand increased 5.9% year-on-year, with capacity up 5.8%. The international load factor stood at 82.5%, also a record for January, up 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous year.

Domestic demand rose 0.1% year-on-year, while domestic capacity declined by 0.4%. The domestic load factor improved by 0.4 percentage points to 81.2%, a record January high.

IATA noted that January’s performance was influenced by the shift of the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026. As the holiday typically generates a demand surge, the timing difference makes the January 2026 comparison appear slightly weaker.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said the timing effect partly explains the slower 3.8% expansion, but added that schedule data indicate a 5.2% increase in global seat capacity by March, potentially the fastest expansion since April 2024. He also noted that recent events have introduced uncertainty regarding traffic and fuel costs, and reiterated the importance of protecting civilians and civil aviation from harm.

Walsh further stated that average fares are expected to fall in real terms during 2026, continuing a long-term trend of more affordable air travel, despite persistent cost pressures including infrastructure charges, regulatory burdens and energy transition costs. He observed that 2025 recorded the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999, calling on governments to address cost and regulatory challenges to protect competition and connectivity.

Regional international performance

All international regions recorded growth in January, although expansion decelerated year-on-year, particularly in Asia-Pacific due to the Lunar New Year timing.

Asia-Pacific airlines posted a 4.4% increase in international demand, with capacity up 5.2%. The load factor was 85.9%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year.

European carriers reported a 6.3% rise in demand and a 5.7% increase in capacity. The load factor improved to 79.4%, up 0.5 percentage points.

North American carriers saw demand increase 3.4% with capacity up 2.6%. The load factor rose 0.6 percentage points to 82.3%.

Middle Eastern airlines recorded 7.2% demand growth and an 8.0% increase in capacity, with the load factor at 83.2%, down 0.4 percentage points.

Latin American airlines achieved an 11.4% rise in demand, with capacity up 8.9%. The load factor climbed 2.0 percentage points to 86.5%.

African airlines posted 11.7% growth in demand and a 10.1% rise in capacity. The load factor increased 1.1 percentage points to 77.4%.

In terms of total market share of global RPKs in 2025, Asia-Pacific accounted for 34.4%, Europe 26.7%, North America 21.8%, the Middle East 9.5%, Latin America and the Caribbean 5.4%, and Africa 2.2%.

Domestic market trends

Domestic markets, which accounted for 37.2% of total global RPKs in 2025, saw marginal growth of 0.1% year-on-year in January.

Among the six largest domestic markets reported, Brazil recorded the strongest growth at 10.9%, with capacity up 8.3% and a load factor of 84.9%. India’s domestic market grew 3.4%, while Japan recorded a 0.7% increase.

By contrast, China’s domestic traffic declined 3.8%, in line with capacity reductions of the same magnitude. The United States saw a 0.7% fall in traffic, and Australia recorded a 1.6% decline.

The six domestic markets detailed account for approximately 29.6% of global total RPKs and 79.4% of total domestic RPKs.

IATA stated that all figures are provisional and represent reporting at the time of publication, plus estimates for missing data. Historical figures remain subject to revision.