IATA Forecasts Sustained Growth to Mid-Century

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP), revealing that global air passenger demand is expected to more than double by 2050. Under the central mid-range scenario, demand is forecast to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% from the 9 trillion RPKs recorded in 2024. IATA Director General, Willie Walsh, noted that the outlook remains positive across all modelled scenarios, providing a robust basis for governments and industry stakeholders to undertake long-term planning for infrastructure and the energy transition.

Regional Outlook and Emerging Market Dominance

The pace of growth is expected to be unevenly distributed, with the fastest expansion concentrated in emerging markets. According to the LTDP, Asia Pacific and Africa are projected to lead global growth with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively. In contrast, the mature markets of Europe and North America are expected to grow more slowly, at 2.5% and 2.8%. Key high-growth corridors identified include intra-Africa (4.9%) and Africa–Asia Pacific (4.5%), underscoring the critical requirement for infrastructure investment and regulatory harmonisation in these regions to support rising connectivity.

Structural Shifts and Market Maturity

The report confirms that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a permanent structural shift in global aviation demand. Unlike previous industry crises, the collapse in RPKs has created a persistent gap that is not expected to converge back to pre-pandemic GDP-aligned trends by 2050. Furthermore, while absolute passenger numbers continue to rise, the growth rate is gradually moderating. Historical data shows a decline from a 6.1% CAGR between 1972 and 1998 to the 3.1% projected for the 2024-2050 period, a trend that IATA attributes to increasing market maturity rather than weakening demand.

Econometric Modelling and Success Enablers

IATA’s projections are based on a comprehensive econometric model utilising more than half a million observations across 41,000 directional country pairs. The primary driver for demand remains real GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power parity. To ensure the industry can meet this projected demand, Walsh emphasised the need for policy frameworks that support efficient infrastructure development, market access, and an effective clean energy transition. The model, which has demonstrated a 98% prediction accuracy at the industry level, also links demand scenarios to the evolution of the global energy transition.

Read the IATA Long-Term Air Transport Passenger Demand Projections report