Africa will require 1,640 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF 2026), as demographic expansion, economic growth, trade and tourism continue to drive demand for air connectivity across the continent. The forecast, issued in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on 13 October 2026, includes demand for 1,310 single-aisle and 330 widebody aircraft by 2045.

Passenger traffic from, to and within Africa is expected to almost triple over the next 20 years, growing at a 4.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), making it the continent with the second-fastest-growing aviation market in the world after Asia. Ethiopia is forecast to see one of the strongest growth rates on the continent, with origin-and-destination passenger traffic increasing almost sixfold between 2025 and 2045.

“Aviation is one of the most powerful catalysts for Africa’s broader economic development,” said Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus in Africa and the Middle East. “As we look toward a future of unprecedented passenger growth, building a strong, collaborative aviation ecosystem will seamlessly connect communities, accelerate regional trade, and unlock new avenues of shared prosperity across Ethiopia and the whole continent.”

DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC DRIVERS

Airbus said growth will be supported by strong demographic and economic fundamentals. Africa’s population is expected to increase by 720 million people to more than two billion by 2045, while its middle-class population will grow by 180 million and its urban population by 450 million, or 47% of the overall population. Over the 2025 to 2045 period, real GDP and real trade are forecast to grow at CAGRs of 4.0% and 3.9%, respectively.

The propensity to travel is also expected to rise significantly. By 2045, yearly trips per capita are forecast to surge by 150% in Ethiopia and increase by 100% in both Nigeria and South Africa. Overall air capacity from, to and within the continent has already more than doubled between 2005 and 2025. Airbus said greater visa openness, expanding fifth-freedom connectivity, trade integration and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will continue to support passenger travel and intra-African connectivity.

FLEET MODERNISATION

Africa is also accelerating its transition to latest-generation aircraft, which Airbus expects to represent 65% of the region’s fleet by 2035, up from 30% in 2025, a shift it says will help boost efficiency and support the long-term sustainability of the continent’s aviation sector.