URBANISATION AND MIDDLE CLASS GROWTH THE TWIN ENGINES OF DEMAND

Airbus has published its 2026–2045 Global Market Forecast (GMF), projecting that air traffic will grow at 3.9% annually over the next two decades, supported by global GDP growth of 2.6% per year, an increase of 1.3 billion in urban populations and an expansion of the middle class demographic most likely to fly by 1.4 billion people — a 34% increase. By 2045, the GMF projects that air traffic will more than double, reaching approximately ten billion passengers per year. The forecast identifies urbanisation and GDP growth as the foundational drivers of long-term air travel demand, and notes that short-term disruptions including regional conflicts and high fuel prices have historically not dampened long-term demand trajectories.

A distinctive structural feature of the GMF’s demand outlook is the shift in urban growth patterns. Rather than the established mega-city corridors that have dominated global aviation networks for decades, the fastest population growth in the forecast period is projected to occur in smaller urban centres. This decentralisation of urban growth is expected to generate new city pairings across shorter and medium ranges that become economically viable through the combination of rising passenger volumes and aircraft with progressively lower unit operating costs. Routes such as Riga–Tenerife and Melbourne–Alice Springs, Airbus notes, can already be efficiently served by aircraft like the A220, illustrating the trend.

ENHANCED RANGE OPENING NEW DIRECT CONNECTIONS

Beyond decentralised urban growth, improved aircraft range is opening entirely new direct long-haul connections that would previously have required a stop. Airbus identifies routes such as Lisbon–Recife on the A321neo, Dublin–Nashville on the A321XLR, Algiers–Kuala Lumpur on the A330neo and Taipei–Phoenix on the A350 as examples of city pairs enabled by the extended range of current and entering-service new-generation types. Traffic patterns are also evolving in response to rapid economic development in markets including India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia, with international migration and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) travel adding a structural layer of demand alongside leisure and business travel.

42,060 AIRCRAFT REQUIRED OVER 20 YEARS; 81% SINGLE-AISLE

The GMF forecasts a total requirement for 42,060 aircraft over the 2026–2045 period. Of this total, 19,820 deliveries are needed to replace retiring older aircraft and 22,240 to accommodate growth. Single-aisle aircraft account for 81% of the requirement by number and widebodies for 19%, reflecting the continuing preference for cost- and fuel-efficient narrowbody types across the expanding network of short- and medium-haul city pairs. Post-COVID fleet ageing is described as accelerating replacement demand, with airlines favouring flexible new-generation types that can profitably operate both low-density and longer-haul routes. By 2045, Airbus forecasts that almost 100% of the global fleet will consist of newest-generation aircraft, compared to approximately 39% in 2026.

AIRBUS ORDER BOOK AND PRODUCT STRATEGY

Airbus says its current record order book of approximately 9,000 aircraft and its production rate trajectory — including a target rate of 75 per month for the A320 Family — reflect and reinforce the demand picture described in the GMF. More than 70% of the current A320 Family backlog is for the largest A321neo and A321XLR variants, which Airbus positions as ideally suited to new city pair development. Higher-capacity trunk routes are addressed by the A330neo and the longest-haul routes by the A350, which is also described as proving popular in the time-sensitive air cargo segment in its Freighter variant. The GMF’s demand outlook, Airbus says, is evident in the scale and composition of its own order book, with the full product range from the A220 to the A350 underpinning current production planning.