Airbus said its 2026 Cargo Global Market Forecast projects the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft to grow 46% from 2,360 in 2026 to 3,460 by 2045, the company announced at the Cargo Facts Symposium in Toulouse, France, on 21 October 2026. The forecast points to a requirement for 2,670 freighters over the period, mainly to replace older models (1,580 aircraft) and to support growth (1,090 aircraft).

Of the 2,670 freighters required, Airbus said 1,140 will be single-aisle aircraft, 860 mid-size widebodies and 670 large widebodies, with 970 new-build and 1,700 converted from passenger aircraft.

With long-term trade projected to expand at a 2.9% compound annual growth rate, Airbus forecasts global air cargo traffic will grow 3.2% annually over the next two decades. Despite high fuel prices, ongoing geopolitical disruption and supply chain constraints, the company said air freight has demonstrated remarkable resilience.

While air cargo accounts for less than 1% of global trade volume by weight, Airbus said it carries more than 30% of total trade by value, reflecting its role for goods requiring the fastest routes to market. The value of computers and high-technology goods carried by air cargo has doubled over the past three years, reaching 15% of the total in 2026, with e-commerce and air cargo’s use as an alternative to shipping also cited as drivers.

Asia-Pacific will remain the leading region for international air cargo traffic, Airbus said, with routes to North America the largest and growing at 3.8% annually, followed by Europe; these routes, the company said, can be efficiently operated by its newest freighter, the A350F.

Regional demand for the 2,670 freighter deliveries will be led by North America and Asia-Pacific, requiring 925 and 850 aircraft respectively and together accounting for two-thirds of global demand. Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States will require 515 aircraft, followed by Latin America with 165, the Middle East with 125 and Africa with 90.

Airbus said an increasing number of previous-generation freighters will be retired and replaced by more efficient next-generation aircraft over the next 20 years, including new-build models such as the A350F as well as passenger-to-freighter conversions across its A320, A321 and A330 families, which it said will help operators lower fuel consumption and reduce carbon emissions.