Global air passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), fell 0.5 per cent in September 2026 compared with September 2025, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in Geneva. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 0.3 per cent. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), decreased 0.2 per cent year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.2 per cent, down 0.3 percentage points from September 2025.

International demand grew 0.4 per cent year-on-year, or 1.7 per cent excluding the Middle East, with capacity up 0.5 per cent and a load factor of 83.6 per cent. Domestic demand fell 2.2 per cent year-on-year, with capacity down 1.3 per cent and a load factor of 82.5 per cent.

“Air traffic demand fell 0.5% in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets. These patterns have more or less repeated themselves throughout much of the year, and we can expect this to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices. Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, but the rates of growth remain weak and highly unbalanced between regions,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability, and Chief Economist.

REGIONAL BREAKDOWN

Among international markets, Latin American airlines led growth with an 8.2 per cent year-on-year increase in demand, followed by African airlines at 8.0 per cent. Asia-Pacific international demand rose 0.7 per cent and European demand rose 1.8 per cent. North American carriers saw flat demand at 0.0 per cent, while Middle Eastern carriers saw a 7.5 per cent year-on-year decrease, with traffic on the Middle East-Asia corridor falling 8.8 per cent, a deeper contraction than August’s 7.9 per cent decline.

In domestic markets, resilience in Australia, Brazil and China was outweighed by continuing weakness in the United States, where demand fell 2.7 per cent, which IATA said was possibly affected by subdued consumer confidence. India recorded its steepest domestic fall this year, down 8.3 per cent, while Japan’s domestic traffic decreased 0.8 per cent, partly due to weather-related disruption during part of the Silver Week travel period.