A recent study by European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has revealed that West Africa is on the brink of an aviation revolution, thanks to its rapidly growing population, diverse economies, and strategic geographical location. The report, titled *”Exploring the Horizons: A Study of Unserved Air Routes to, from, and within Africa,”* identifies significant opportunities for new air routes in the region, with nine of the top 15 unserved routes originating or terminating in West Africa.
Among the key routes highlighted are Lagos-New York, Abuja-Nairobi, and Dakar-Libreville. The report emphasizes the current underutilization of West Africa’s air connectivity, noting that throughout 2023 and into the IATA summer of 2024, only two routes connected Nigeria to North America, both operated by non-Nigerian airlines. These routes were Lagos-Atlanta, operated by Delta Air Lines, and Lagos-Washington, operated by United Airlines. The entire West African region had just three entry points into North America: Atlanta, New York, and Washington.
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The Airbus study further explores the untapped potential of other African cities, identifying Cape Town, Nairobi, Dakar, and Douala as major hubs with high-potential unserved routes. Long-haul intercontinental flights, particularly those connecting Africa to North America, Europe, and the Indian subcontinent, are seen as crucial gaps in the current air travel landscape. Passengers on these routes often face lengthy layovers and inconvenient connections.
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The African Airlines Association projects that African airlines will surpass the 100 million passenger mark for the first time in 2025, signaling significant growth in the continent’s aviation sector. This year alone, passenger numbers are expected to reach 98 million, a 15% increase from 2023. Airbus forecasts a 4.1% annual growth in air traffic over the next two decades, leading to a demand for 1,180 new aircraft in Africa by 2043.
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Despite existing challenges, the study highlights the potential for improved air travel efficiency through better connectivity and optimized flight paths, which could reduce travel times and costs. Airlines across the continent are already expanding to cover new routes within Africa and beyond. Ethiopian Airlines, for instance, aims for a 30% growth in passenger numbers by mid-2024. Meanwhile, foreign airlines are increasingly establishing new routes into Africa, with AirAsia launching a direct flight from East Africa to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in November.
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The ongoing expansion efforts are paying off, with IATA projecting that African airlines will collectively earn a net profit in 2024 for the second consecutive year, demonstrating the industry’s resilience post-pandemic.
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The Airbus report also suggests the creation of direct long-haul routes between several key destinations, including Harare to London, Johannesburg to Mumbai, Entebbe to London, Cape Town to Brussels, Durban to London, and Nairobi to Washington. Additionally, it proposes multiple new routes from Lagos to North American cities such as Manchester, New York, Toronto, and Houston.
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While some intra-continental routes rank lower in terms of economic feasibility due to lower traffic numbers, promising prospects include the Cape Town-Lagos route. The report highlights the strategic importance of both Lagos and Cape Town within their respective regions, yet notes the absence of a non-stop flight between these major cities.
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Experts also emphasize the need for visa-free travel across Africa to unlock the full potential of the continent’s aviation sector. Alan Hirsch, a research fellow at the New South Institute and emeritus professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, points out that by the end of 2022, only 27% of African routes allowed visa-free travel for Africans. He underscores the importance of this issue as a key developmental challenge for the continent, aligning with the African Union’s Agenda 2063.
