Attempting to predict the future is an awful business. Get it right, and it appears obvious in hindsight; get it wrong, and the verdict is far less forgiving. Nevertheless, for the third year in a row, the contrail crystal ball is back in service. Before looking ahead to 2026, it is worth revisiting last year’s predictions, alongside one delayed but notable hit from two years ago.

 

Looking Back: Hits, Misses and Late Arrivals

At the beginning of 2025, several expectations were set for how contrail research and mitigation might progress.

 

The first prediction was that corporations would seek better estimates of contrail warming. For many large software and consulting firms, Scope 3 emissions from air travel represent a significant portion of their overall climate footprint. At present, many companies account for non-COâ‚‚ impacts by multiplying COâ‚‚ emissions from flights by a factor of 1.7. With improved contrail prediction models and accurate corporate travel data, it was expected that warming could be calculated per flight, providing more actionable insight.

 

For much of the year, progress appeared limited. However, a late breakthrough arrived when RMI, Estuaire, BCG and Roland Berger released a landmark report on corporate accounting for non-COâ‚‚ effects. The work, which began at the Copenhagen Contrails Conference in March, outlined how these impacts can be calculated and reported more accurately and has already generated interest among large corporations. This prediction ultimately stands as a clear success.

 

The second expectation was that the European Union would sponsor at least one new contrail avoidance trial through the Innovation Fund. While several large EU-supported projects are ongoing, this prediction focused on new, targeted funding for contrail and non-COâ‚‚ initiatives. Despite a consortium of airlines, flight planners, technology companies and scientists proposing thousands of contrail avoidance flights, no new trials received funding during the year. This prediction did not materialise, though hopes remain for the future.

 

Another forecast suggested that new climate organisations would begin focusing on contrails. While several transport-focused NGOs were already engaged, the expectation was that broader climate organisations would start recognising contrail mitigation as a significant opportunity. This proved accurate. Representatives from Greenpeace UK became involved in contrail discussions, new non-profits entered learning networks, and a coordinated NGO push brought contrails into focus at COP30 in Brazil.

 

A delayed success also deserves mention. In early 2024, it was predicted that the first fleet-wide contrail testing would take place, with airlines analysing all daily flights to identify opportunities to avoid the most climate-intensive contrails. While this did not happen in 2024, it has now become a reality. In 2025, two European airlines began analysing their entire fleets for contrail warming and adjusting flight plans accordingly, although these efforts have not yet been publicly communicated.

 

What the Crystal Ball Shows for 2026

Looking ahead, several developments are expected to shape the contrail landscape in 2026.

First, public focus on contrails is likely to increase significantly compared to 2025. A relatively quiet year, influenced by reduced political attention on climate issues, is expected to give way to renewed interest. A key driver will be Europe’s new Monitoring, Reporting and Verification requirements for aviation non-CO₂ impacts. From 2026, all airlines flying within Europe will be required to report their full climate impacts, including contrails.

 

Second, 2026 is expected to see the largest contrail trial ever conducted. Large-scale experiments remain essential to understanding how contrail avoidance can be implemented effectively. In the United Kingdom, the government has allocated several million pounds for ambitious trials over the North Atlantic. At the same time, there is the possibility that major airlines may choose to implement contrail avoidance at scale independently.

 

Third, contrails are predicted to enter at least one airline’s public climate targets. Monitoring of airline communications shows that while contrails are increasingly discussed, explicit reduction targets remain rare. Delta Air Lines set such goals three years ago, but these were later withdrawn and not repeated. The expectation for 2026 is that at least one airline will publicly commit to contrail reduction targets and, importantly, maintain them.

 

The promise stands to return in twelve months’ time to see how these predictions fare. For now, the skies remain an evolving laboratory, with contrails firmly positioned as one of aviation’s most immediate climate challenges.