GLOBAL DEMAND AND CAPACITY PERFORMANCE

Demand growth outpaces capacity expansion

Data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that total air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), rose by 11.2% compared to February 2025. International operations recorded a slightly higher increase of 11.6%.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with international capacity rising by 9.8%. This resulted in a 1.1 percentage point increase in the global cargo load factor, which reached 46.0%.

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT AND MARKET DRIVERS

Trade growth and manufacturing support demand

Several underlying factors contributed to the February performance. Global goods trade expanded by 5.2% year-on-year in January, supporting cargo volumes.

Manufacturing sentiment also strengthened, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 53.1, remaining above the expansion threshold. New export orders increased to 51.4, the highest level since July 2021, indicating favourable conditions for air cargo demand.

Jet fuel prices rose by 1.2% year-on-year in February, while volatility in refining margins persisted, as reflected in a widening Brent–jet fuel crack spread.

Geopolitical developments introduce uncertainty

The operating environment shifted toward the end of February with the outbreak of war in the Middle East. This has led to rising fuel costs, fuel supply constraints in some regions, and disruption to key cargo hubs in the Gulf.

REGIONAL PERFORMANCE VARIATIONS

Africa records strongest growth

African airlines recorded the strongest regional growth, with demand increasing by 21.0% year-on-year and capacity rising by 17.3%.

Asia-Pacific carriers reported a 13.6% increase in demand, supported by a 10.1% rise in capacity.

Middle Eastern airlines saw demand grow by 16.5%, with capacity increasing by 13.5%, although the region faces operational disruption linked to geopolitical developments.

North American carriers recorded a 9.4% increase in demand, while European carriers saw a 6.9% rise. Both regions showed relatively balanced capacity growth.

Latin American and Caribbean carriers reported the weakest performance, with demand increasing by 0.7% and capacity rising by 4.5%.

TRADE LANE PERFORMANCE

Growth sustained across major corridors

Air freight volumes increased across all major trade corridors in February.

The Africa–Asia trade lane recorded the strongest growth at 61.9%, marking eight consecutive months of expansion.

Europe–Asia routes continued a sustained growth trend with a 13.1% increase and 36 consecutive months of expansion.

Other notable corridors included Middle East–Asia (+24.0%) and Asia–North America (+9.1%), while intra-Asia and intra-Europe routes also showed continued growth.

INDUSTRY CONTEXT

The February data reflects a period of strong underlying demand supported by trade and manufacturing activity. However, emerging geopolitical developments and fuel-related pressures introduce uncertainty into the operating environment.

While demand continues to outpace capacity growth, the extent to which current trends can be sustained will depend on the stabilisation of fuel supply and the resolution of regional disruptions.