A FLAT MONTH GLOBALLY, WITH TWO REGIONS PULLING AGAINST IT

The International Air Transport Association has released passenger data for July 2026, showing total demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres up 0.2 per cent against July 2025, with capacity up 0.3 per cent and the global load factor at 85.2 per cent, a decline of 0.1 percentage points. International demand fell 0.1 per cent while domestic demand grew 0.6 per cent.

Those aggregate figures conceal a wide spread, and IATA is explicit about the cause. Excluding Middle Eastern carriers, total demand grew 1.2 per cent and international demand grew 1.5 per cent. Middle Eastern airlines recorded a 10.0 per cent fall in total demand and a 9.5 per cent fall internationally, though the association notes the decline continues to moderate after the double-digit falls recorded earlier in the year. North American carriers were the other negative region, down 1.2 per cent overall and 2.3 per cent internationally, with the transatlantic corridor falling 2.2 per cent on notable declines in traffic from the United Kingdom, France and Spain.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, described the peak Northern summer travel season as a mostly positive story, noting that growth of 0.2 per cent was achieved despite collective year-on-year declines by carriers in North America and the Middle East, and that traffic through the Gulf hubs continues its recovery trajectory. She said that although high fuel costs, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue, carriers are expressing confidence in demand for the last part of the year, with an almost 3 per cent expansion of seat capacity planned for September.

THE AFRICAN POSITION, AND WHY THE LOAD FACTOR IS THE NUMBER TO WATCH

African carriers recorded total demand growth of 5.2 per cent, second only to Latin America and the Caribbean at 6.1 per cent, and comfortably ahead of Europe at 2.1 per cent and Asia Pacific at 1.0 per cent. On international operations the African figure was stronger still at 6.4 per cent. On demand alone, this was one of the better months the continent’s carriers have had.

The load factor tells a different story. African carriers filled 75.1 per cent of available seats in July, against a global average of 85.2 per cent. On international operations the figure was 74.1 per cent against 85.2 per cent globally. Every other region sat in the eighties: Europe at 87.7 per cent, North America at 87.3 per cent, Latin America at 85.3 per cent, Asia Pacific at 83.7 per cent, and even the Middle East, whose traffic is being suppressed by regional conflict, at 80.7 per cent. Africa is the lowest by 5.6 percentage points on the total market and by 6.8 points on international operations.

The reason is visible in the capacity column. African capacity grew 7.3 per cent in July against demand growth of 5.2 per cent, and international capacity grew 9.0 per cent against demand growth of 6.4 per cent. In both cases seats were added faster than passengers were found to fill them, and the load factor fell accordingly, by 1.5 percentage points on the total market and 1.8 points internationally. Africa was one of only three regions to record a load factor decline of more than a point, alongside the Middle East and, marginally, Latin America.

WHY A LOW LOAD FACTOR COSTS MORE NOW THAN IT USED TO

Load factor is not a vanity metric. It is the denominator in every unit cost calculation an airline performs, and its significance rises with the cost of fuel. World Airnews Daily reported last week that Kenya Airways now attributes approximately 32 per cent of total operating expenses and 52 per cent of direct operating costs to fuel, a figure closely matching IATA’s global forecast of 31.4 per cent for the year. When more than half the cost of operating a flight is the fuel burned on it, the difference between filling 75 per cent of the aircraft and filling 85 per cent is the difference between a viable sector and an unviable one, because the fuel burn is very nearly the same either way.

Set against that, Kenya Airways’ own half-year strategy reads as counter to the regional trend rather than in line with it. The airline reduced capacity by 9 per cent, grew revenue 9 per cent and improved its cabin factor by four percentage points. Whatever else can be said about a widening loss, the capacity discipline is the opposite of what the aggregate African figures describe, and on the evidence of the July load factor data it is the discipline the region as a whole is not exercising.

THE CORRIDOR THAT GREW, AND THE ONE THAT DID NOT

Two international corridors stand out in opposite directions. Passenger traffic between Europe and Asia grew 12.1 per cent, which IATA identifies as the strongest expansion of any major international corridor. The transatlantic, by contrast, fell 2.2 per cent. European carriers overall recorded a 3.1 per cent international demand increase with capacity up 3.2 per cent and a load factor of 87.1 per cent. Asia-Pacific carriers recorded a 0.7 per cent international decline, though with capacity cut 1.7 per cent their load factor improved 0.9 points to 84.5 per cent, which is the sort of result capacity discipline produces.

In domestic markets, growth of 0.6 per cent overall concealed a similar spread. China grew 5.3 per cent and Brazil 6.0 per cent, while India fell 6.3 per cent, the United States fell 0.5 per cent and Australia fell 0.5 per cent. The six domestic markets for which broken-down data are available account for approximately 29.6 per cent of global revenue passenger kilometres and 79.4 per cent of domestic traffic.